Sunday, August 4, 2013

Hyderabad Metro will be doomed after AP's division

Hyderabad metro will be doomed after the state's division. Because, it is designed on false projections and lies. It is aimed at giving more lands to the private party for real estate development. It is premised on extracting more and more concessions  from the state govt. It will become a huge millstone (gudibanda in Telugu) around the neck of the new T state. I will post a more elaborate write-up later. Now the news item in TOI.- CR

Division of Andhra may hit ridership on metro rail
HYDERABAD: Will there be any impact on metro rail ridership if the state is bifurcated? The answer is yes. Hyderabad Metro Rail Limited (HMRL) officials fear it might impact the projected ridership for the metro rail, which in turn might hit its fare box collection. Apart from this, the impact is also likely to hit transit-oriented development and advertising revenue of L&T Metro Rail (Hyderabad). When the metro rail was designed a few years ago, the officials estimated ridership could be 15 lakh per day by 2015 and might touch 22 lakh per day by 2025. The officials arrived at the figure by taking volume of traffic, population and number of vehicles and their growth per year into consideration. Bidders had also taken these figures into consideration while quoting their bid amount for bagging the contract during the bidding process.

However, analysts claim the projected figure might change if the state is divided as growth of the city, floating population, vehicular traffic and other figures might not be relevant as development might slow down. "Several traffic studies of Hyderabad reveal that every year two lakh personal vehicles were being added to the roads in the city. The total motorized trips are 35 lakh per day, including 61% two-wheelers, 21% autos, 15% cars and 3% buses. Now, new vehicles and passenger trips will be less in the separate state," an official of the municipal administration and urban development (MA&UD) department said.

Infrastructure giant L&T had bagged the metro rail project in 2010 with an approved cost of Rs 14,132 crore. The rail project is being implemented on three corridors - Miyapur-LB Nagar, Jubilee Bus Station-Falaknuma and Nagole-Shilparamam - covering a distance of 72 kms. The first two stretches might be ready by December 2014 and commercial operations are likely to begin in June 2015. The entire 72-km stretch is expected to be completed by July 2016. The concession period for the project is 35 years, which includes five-year construction period, and could be extended by another 25 years.

Interestingly, the
 DMRC had prepared a detailed project report for the metro rail project eight years ago and estimated the traffic to be around 40,000 passengers per hour in peak direction (PPHPD). However, the HMRL officials revised it to 60,000 PPHPD as there was growth of traffic in the city. Initially, the metro train would have three-car trains carrying 1,000 passengers each and later it would be six-car trains for 6,000 passengers. The HMR has already announced frequency of the trains to be 3 to 5 minutes during peak hours keeping in view of the likely ridership.

"The L&T can ask the state government to increase passenger fare (freezed minimum fare of Rs 8) or seek more concession period to reach their estimated revenues," another official said.W hen contacted for comments on the likely impact, Hyderabad Metro Rail (HMR) managing director NVS Reddy refused to comment on the issue.


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